Petroleum Supported by Global Risk Appetite

We are preparing to leave behind a challenging 5-month period for energy commodities as the dollar gains strength globally and concerns about a recession weigh heavily. The value loss in American-style crude oil futures since the beginning of the year has approached 10 percent. Even OPEC's surprise decision to limit supply could not contain the decline in oil prices. While signs of sluggish energy demand are being observed in China, developments related to the debt limit crisis in the United States and the inability to reach a final resolution in negotiations continue to put pressure on oil prices. Although the parties did not reach an agreement in yesterday's meeting, we are seeing a limited increase in oil futures following statements by Biden and McCarthy that their debt ceiling discussions were 'productive'. On the demand side, the focus is more on the debt crisis and messages from Federal Reserve officials, while on the supply side, ongoing fires in an area near the oil fields in Canada's Alberta region are being monitored. The continued wildfires in Alberta, the country's largest energy production region, could contribute to ongoing fluctuations in oil and gas production.

Following Powell's remarks at the recent FED meeting, the importance of pricing based on macroeconomic data has increased, and global markets will be monitoring key indicators from the United States this week. These indicators include PMI data, FED meeting minutes, and PCE inflation data. The release of the US manufacturing PMI data today will also be significant in evaluating the FED's next steps. Despite the expected decline in May's manufacturing PMI compared to the previous month due to the debt ceiling crisis, it is anticipated to remain above the threshold of 50. From a technical standpoint on American-style crude oil futures, we can say that we have been in a bearish market since last June when prices were around $120. Since the beginning of the year, American-style crude oil futures have lost nearly 10% of their value. Positive news regarding FED expectations and the debt limit crisis could lead to a focus on the initial target level of $74.55, where the 50-day moving average intersects. If this level is surpassed, the next resistance point would be around $76, where the 100-day moving average lies. As long as the price remains above the 50-day moving average, a cautiously optimistic outlook can be expected. In terms of possible pullbacks, the level of $70 can be considered as the first support level.