Rise of Euro as EU leaders agree on a historic recovery deal

EURUSD continues its rise as of Wednesday trading day, as large offers get filled in the market. According to Credit Agricole the Euro should push higher against the U.S. Dollar after EU’s historic recovery plan targeting gains to 1.1850 & seeing long term fair value at 1.24. As the deal could shift growth outlook in favor of Euro Zone, mitigating the tail risk of break up in the bloc. and pull funds into region’s stocks and bonds; Issuance of EU750bn of AAA-rated EU recovery liabilities could attract long-term investors worried about the risks for U.S. assets.

We are seeing some prominent difference between European & U.K. markets as well. By almost every market metric, investors are rewarding European unity and punishing the U.K.’s intractable problems. The euro is near the highest since early 2019, Germany’s DAX Index is almost positive for the year and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index has added $3.5 trillion in market value since the mid-March low. GBPUSD’s failed test at 1.2770 also strengthens the argument. Trading in red at the moment with day’s low at 1.2670.

Dollar Index continued its bearish move after the break of 95.50 yesterday. The next major support will be at 94.55 the low of Oct’19, which makes the case for Euro pushing upwards to 1.1850 stronger.

Finally Gold prices still remains elevated, as demand for the yellow metal seems pretty strong with investors expecting more stimulus from the U.S. & the Covid situation in India, U.S. & Hong Kong worsening. So a $2000 mark for gold looks very achievable. With no major technical resistance before $1920.80 which was the high back in September 2013. A break above this level would probably make the case for Gold stronger.