ALB Limited 28.11.2023

'Dovish FED' Pricing on Ounce Gold

-As the latest signals from the US economy such as CPI, PPI, Industrial Production and Unemployment Claims pointed to "cooling"; the predictions that the FED has reached the peak in interest rates have started to gain weight.
-Ounce gold has been moving in the trend of pricing "interest rate cuts" in the US for some time. The US 10-year bond yields, which tested above the 5.00 level last month, fell to the 4.40 limit and the DXY (Dollar index) fell from 107.00 to 103.00 in the same period, increasing the risk appetite and supporting ounce gold prices.
-Ounce gold, priced above $ 2000 in the last 3 trading days, tested the $ 2015 level, reaching its highest level since May 2023.
-Starting to rise from the $ 1930 level seen on 13 November, ounce gold, with the support it found from the 100-day average (1931) on that date; It also passed the 50, 22 and 5-day average levels, respectively, and confirmed its strong outlook.

-In the nearest term, if the US employment and CPI data to be announced in December maintain their "moderate" outlook, the "dovish FED" pricing may gain further momentum and the desire to move towards $ 2065, the highest level of 2023 on the ounce gold side, may find support.
-In the event that prices need "rest" and "breathing", it will be important to persist above $ 2000, which has been realised and exceeded since the annual high level, signalled by the main downward trend.
-It should be taken into account that the main trend will be "up" as long as it holds above $ 2000, and in case of violation, the retreats that may reach $ 1980 in the first place should be considered normal.

Tags: Gold, XAU, FED, Analysis, Forex

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