Critical Support on 100,800 at DXY

In the U.S., the dollar index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in two months as the banking crisis fueled recession fears and recent economic data fell short of expectations. The negative expectations began to support predictions that the FED rate hikes would come to an end and be scaled back starting in the second half of the year.

The DXY, which had risen from 100.800 to 105.800 on Feb. 2 and peaked on March 8, was pulled as low as 101.400 in April 5 transactions. If the U.S. jobs data released on Friday falls short of expectations, a downside breakout from the 100.800 level and a fall back to the 98.00-97.00 range would be possible. Downward pressure is expected to continue as long as the DXY does not rise above 101.900 and "permanence" above that level is not achieved. The fact that the 22-day moving average has started to cut the 50-day moving average to the downside should not go unnoticed as a negative signal.